False Discovery Rate

(percentage of measured wins, who are false positives)

(percentage of measured wins, who are false positives)

False Negative Rate

(percentage of measured non-wins, who are false negatives)

(percentage of measured non-wins, who are false negatives)

Winning Ideas Rate

(percentage of winning ideas in reality)

(percentage of winning ideas in reality)

Winning Ideas

Non-winning Ideas

True Negatives

False Positives

False Negatives

True Positives

Winners measured

Non-winners measured